The influence
of weather conditions on the fire hazard in nature in the protected areas of the
Southern Carpathians
Živanović Stanimir, Nenad Radaković, Amalia Dumbrava and Gocić Milena
Disaster Advances; Vol. 18(10); 34-42;
doi: https://doi.org/10.25303/1810da034042; (2025)
Abstract
The protected areas in the Carpathians are sensitive to different types of natural
hazards that threaten different systems. We investigated the possible influence
of weather conditions that favour the ignition and spread of fires in protected
areas in the Southern Carpathians. We focussed on the Djerdap National Park (Serbia)
and the Iron Gates Natural Park (Romania). We used the calculation of climate indices
based on the combination of air temperature, precipitation and humidity. The variability
of the dynamics of fire occurrence in nature reserves was analysed depending on
the change in the value of Forest Aridity Index (FAI), the De Martonne Aridity Index
(IDM), the Lang Rain Factor (L) and Angström index (I) in the period 2018-2023.
The fire risk was assessed using statistical data on the occurrence of fires in
Djerdap National Park and the Iron Gates Natural Park. The data on the period of
fire occurrence show that the greatest risk of fire occurrence is in the period
March-April (71.1% of the total annual number of fires), when air temperatures are
not high.
Based on the value of the Angström Index (I), the risk of forest fires is highest
in the period July-August. The results obtained show that there is a correlation
between the number of fires and the climate indices, whereby the coefficient of
determination for the annual values is significantly higher than for the monthly
values. The correlation of the monthly dynamics of the occurrence of fires with
the climate indices (L, IDM) is stronger for the Djerdap National Park area than
for the Iron Gates Nature Park.
